So, I ate the humble pie Weeks 9 & 10. After a healthy dose of reviewing my analysis, I'd say that 27-3 over the last two weeks (a winning percentage of 90%) is as close to perfection as a college student, or any bettor, can expect. So with an amazing record over the last two weeks, both winning weeks over Ashton & his picks, let's take a brief look at the NFL lineup on Sunday...
SIDE NOTE: From here on out, bets & results will be against the current spread on ESPN.com (current time: 11:45 pm, EST). I feel like betting vs. the spread is the direction where this blog deserves to head, so Ashton & I can look toward making real bets in Las Vegas (or something like that). Also, as always, we hold no responsibility for people betting off of information from this blog; we're not perfect, nobody's perfect, so we have to accept the inevitability that we'll win some picks & lose some picks.
Tennessee @ Buffalo: The Bills went 0-4 in November, and only once did they scored more than 12+ points. However, the last three of those games were on the road, and the Titans haven't been playing extremely well either. The current line on ESPN has Buffalo by 3; I think if this game were played in October, Buffalo would be much more heavily favored, but at this point in the season, I'd give a 55/45 edge to Tennessee.
TENNESSEE
Kansas City @ Chicago: Even without Jay Cutler, the Bears are favored by 7. Yes, Oakland beat Chicago in Oakland, but the Raiders are 7-4; the Chiefs are much weaker at 4-7. Hanie isn't the best quarterback in the world, but when they have such a strong running game, there isn't as much need to throw more than 20 yards downfield.
CHICAGO
Oakland @ Miami: Speaking of the 7-4 Raiders, they are traveling down to Miami to face a resurgent Dolphins squad. In the last 3 weeks, Miami is 2-1 against a somewhat respectable group; Oakland is 3-0 against a relatively similar group (bad teams: WAS & MIN; okay teams: BUF & SD; playoff teams: DAL & CHI). Miami somehow is favored by 3 points; take the points, I'm taking Oakland to beat Miami and extend their 3-game winning streak.
OAKLAND
Denver @ Minnesota: The Mile High Messiah is making noise in the news for a reason; for whatever reason, he figures out a way to win games. Combine that with a defense that is absolutely underrated (and overshadowed by the media presence surrounding Tim Tebow), and the Broncos will pose a significant threat to Oakland in the final weeks for the AFC West title. Denver is only a 1-point favorite (a toss-up, for all intents & purposes), and I don't see Minnesota figuring out a way to win against a team as hot as the Broncos.
DENVER
Indianapolis @ New England: With the Patriots as a 21 point favorite, this is expected to be (and probably will be) the blowout of the week. I don't know anybody who honestly expects Indianapolis to pull off this upset; the bigger question is, will New England be able to cover the spread? With the forecast in the mid 50's, and only a 20% chance of precipitation (with relatively low winds), the weather appears favorable to Tom Brady opening up the playbook & completing 30-35 passes to Welker & Hernandez.
NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh: Tough matchup here, both in terms of hoping the Bengals pull off the upset against the 7-point favorites & figuring out if Pittsburgh will cover the spread. Cincinnati, for whatever reason, has a relatively strong record playing in Pittsburgh- since 2005, the Bengals are 3-3 playing at Pittsburgh (1-3 in the last 4 years, however). The key for Cincinnati might be the fact that Polamalu has a head injury- without that crazy mess of hair flying all over the field, Dalton might have a better chance to pick apart the decent Steelers defense and at least keep the final score within a touchdown.
CINCINNATI
Carolina @ Tampa Bay: This will be a fun division matchup to watch, with the somewhat disappointing Bucs hosting potential rookie of the year Cam Newton. What's that? Carolina is a 3-point underdog to Tampa? The Panthers are still underrated in the NFL, apparently- while this is a division game between teams that are 4-7 & 3-8, both teams have played relatively difficult schedules and are better than other teams with similar records.
CAROLINA
NY Jets @ Washington: Washington is awful. The Jets are making a relatively strong comeback in the AFC West. With the Jets only a 3 point favorite, this should be one of the easiest spreads to cover.
NY JETS
Atlanta @ Houston: Sorry Ashton, I can't imagine Yates & Clemens will be strong enough at quarterback to hang with the very good Falcons team. Yes, the Texans are based around the overall team as opposed to Schaub or Leinart; however, the same situation happened in Chicago- Cutler, a decent quarterback, was out against a decent Oakland team, and the Raiders won that matchup. Same deal here- with the Falcons as a 1-point favorite (essentially, a coin-flip), give the points & take Atlanta to try and keep pace with the Saints.
ATLANTA
Baltimore @ Cleveland: Baltimore is only a 7-point favorite? Sure, they've imploded against less-than-stellar teams this season, but a) you can't bet on that consistently happening and b) division games always receive extra attention.
BALTIMORE
Green Bay @ NY Giants: Green Bay has a few extra days to rest since playing on Thanksgiving Day, and the Giants have a relatively short week. On top of that, the Packers have only won one game by a margin of less than 7 points (a 6 point win @ MIN), which was 'nullified' by a 45-7 beatdown of the Vikings 3 weeks later. While the Giants are a respectable team, Green Bay is seemingly unstoppable this season.
GREEN BAY
Dallas @ Arizona: Dallas barely escaped last week against a decent Miami team, and Arizona has been within a touchdown of most games this season. However, they haven't beaten a team with a record better than 4-8, and you can bet Romo got chewed out a bit for almost losing the game against the Dolphins. With the Cowboys only at a 4.5-point favorite, give the points & take Dallas over the Cardinals.
DALLAS
St. Louis @ San Francisco: St. Louis is a relatively awful team, San Francisco is a very good team (even though they lost on Thanksgiving to an excellent Baltimore team), and the 14-point line reflects that. However, the Rams won't stay within two touchdowns of a 49ers team that is strong across the board, especially with Frank Gore showing some life again this season.
SAN FRANCISCO
Detroit @ New Orleans: New Orleans is still a helluva team at home, and Suh's suspension does not help Detroit's bid to stay in the playoff hunt. The Saints are a 9-point favorite, but this game will be won by a margin of closer to 14-17 points; when Detroit loses one of its key defensive players, the job becomes that much more impossible to stop Drew Brees & Co.
NEW ORLEANS
San Diego @ Jacksonville: San Diego is a 3-point favorite in this matchup, which really says something about America's confidence in the Jaguars year after year. I mean, how many teams can be on a 6-game losing streak and still be favored in a road game?.. Oh yeah. Jacksonville has two fluke wins over TEN & BAL and hasn't been within 3 points in any of their 8 losses.
SAN DIEGO
