Showdown Week!

Hey y'all, it looks like Ashton & I tied last week.. that means, after everything's said & done over the last three weeks, we're 1-1-1. Who will take the lead this week? THIS GUY. Why, might you ask? Because this time, there are no distractions- just a man studying his football. So without further ado, here are my picks for Week 10:

Oakland @ San Diego: The Chargers have proven historically that they're a second-half team. Well, the first half of the season is over, and Oakland is coming to town with one Carson Palmer who has been absolutely awful the last two games (karma's a bitch, Carson!). With both teams on losing streaks, you usually look to the team that needs the win more; San Diego needs to win to prove to the rest of the league that they're still an elite team.
SAN DIEGO

New Orleans @ Atlanta: Atlanta has three straight wins, but New Orleans has been the best team in the division for the last couple of years. Statistically, New Orleans is slightly better on offense across the board, but the teams are even defensively. To make the game more even, according to the injury reports it looks like the Saints are a little more banged up. For most Vegas books, this game is a straight up pick; in these cases, I have to side with the home field advantage (especially considering both teams are good enough to make the playoffs, where home-field advantage can be huge).
ATLANTA

Tennessee @ Carolina: Carolina is coming off a bye week, which will make a huge difference when the difference in defenses is less than 0.2% in yards per game allowed (358.2 to 358.6). Also, while Carolina allows more points than Tennessee, the Titans offense has been struggling while Cam Newton has been playing extremely well. Carolina has been inconsistent at home (only 3-2, the losses coming to GB and MIN), but against the average teams they've found a good rhythm. This will continue with a close win- but a win nonetheless- over Tennessee.
CAROLINA

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati: Both offensively and defensively, the Steelers are statistically better than the Bengals. Why, then, is Pittsburgh only 6-3 while the Bengals are a half game better at 6-2? Here's the answer: the Bengals play more conservative games, which result in Cedric Benson doing what he does best by pounding most defenses that they've faced. Another reason why the Steelers have been gaining more yards but have one more loss? Pittsburgh's turnover ratio is an abysmal -11. For comparison, the Bengals are +4 over the whole season, which leads to the assumption that Cincinnati will probably win the turnover battle by one or two. In a tight, ground-based game, this could make all the difference- especially when this match-up is part of a heated rivalry and where momentum could be the deciding factor.
CINCINNATI

St. Louis @ Cleveland: This game could set all sorts of records for the most boring NFL game this season (even more than Seattle @ Cleveland a few weeks ago). Peyton Hillis, the Browns' best player, is out for yet another game; the Madden Curse has officially claimed another victim. St. Louis, while much healthier, is still 1-7. I'm going to go with the team that has scored more points on average and given up fewer points on average, with the bonus of home-field advantage (for what it's worth).
CLEVELAND

Buffalo @ Dallas: These teams are as evenly matched as Atlanta & New Orleans.. only difference is, this is a decent AFC East team visiting a decent NFC East team. In the past month, the only real disappointment for Cowboys fans was the debacle at Philly (which they were supposed to lose anyway), so Dallas overall hasn't looked too bad. Really, the matchup comes down to this: Dallas is 3-1 at home, Buffalo is 1-2 on the road.
DALLAS

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis: Are you ready to hear a crazy statistic? Curtis Painter has a BETTER passer rating than Blaine Gabbert! This is probably the best chance for Indianapolis to get a win this season (home division game against the next-worst team in the division), and I can't imagine Indy fans will roll over if they blow this opportunity.
INDIANAPOLIS

Denver @ Kansas City: Tim Tebow is perhaps the luckiest quarterback in the NFL right now, with the comeback wins at Miami & at Oakland. However, he also looked terrible at home against a decent Detroit team, so the jury is still far from out as to whether Tebow will become the quarterback everybody expects (or wants) him to become. Meanwhile, Kansas City has just gotten blown out at home for the second time, 41-7 vs. BUF and now 31-3 vs. MIA. Guess what- after the BUF loss, they won their next home game over a bad Minnesota team. Arrowhead Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, and Denver is barely better than the Vikings.
KANSAS CITY

Washington @ Miami: Washington has lost its last three games, all against decent teams (@CAR, @BUF, vs SF). Miami, in its last three games, has lost two by 3 points each (while on the winless streak) and finally got their act together in blowing out KC. Really, the issue with the Dolphins appears to be converting 3rd downs, and the Redskins are allowing opponents to convert 1/3 of 3rd downs faced. Look to the Dolphins to get win #2 at home, and more quarterback issues in the near future for Washington.
MIAMI

Arizona @ Philadelphia: While Arizona has played a lot of teams close, those games were at home in the heat of the southwest. Philly has experience playing in slightly colder weather, and given the fact that the Eagles are hot, better athletes, and now have a drive to reach the top of the NFC East, expect this game to be somewhat of a blowout.
PHILADELPHIA

Houston @ Tampa Bay: Speaking of heat, the Texans are HOT. They're putting up 26 points per game, allowing less than 18 points per game, and Tampa Bay actually thinks Albert Haynesworth will have an impact this season. Even though this game is in Tampa Bay, I'm watching to see if Houston will put up 30 in a rout over Josh Freeman (who has more interceptions than touchdowns this season).
HOUSTON

Baltimore @ Seattle: Nothing to do here. If you're in Seattle, and were planning on going to the game, save your money and go skiing up in British Columbia instead. Then again, they play the game for a reason- if Baltimore falls asleep at halftime, the Seahawks might make a game of it. Probably not, though.
BALTIMORE

Detroit @ Chicago: Wow. A month ago, I would have dismissed this game- the Bears were looking pitiful, and Detroit was still undefeated. Fast forward to today, though, and it looks like teams have found chinks in the Lions' armor. There are a few reasons why I SHOULD go with the Lions: 1) They took the first match-up this season, with Calvin Johnson going wild at Ford Field, 2) Chicago HAS to be exhausted, having just played a game in London 2 weeks ago & played Monday Night Football at Philly this past week, and 3) Matthew Stafford has had a bye week to heal his ankle. However, I am sticking with the Bears. Why? 1) Home teams tend to have an advantage in division games, 2) Chicago WON those games in London and at Philly, and 3) Jahvid Best is still questionable. When Detroit was on their winning streak, it was because the Lions could rely on the run to keep defenses honest if they were ganging up on Megatron (Calvin Johnson); since Best has been injured, the running game hasn't been the same, and the Lions have suffered accordingly. Go with the home team, the hot team, and the (still) healthier team.
CHICAGO

New York Giants @ San Francisco: The Giants are a decent team, but haven't always performed when necessary. San Francisco is 7-1, and everything is running smoothly in the Bay Area right now. East coast teams tend to struggle when playing games on the west coast; expect that trend to continue, especially when the home 49ers is superior than the visiting Giants.
SAN FRANCISCO

New England @ New York Jets: Very few people expected the Giants to win in Foxborough. Fewer people expected the Patriots to lose that game plus the game two weeks ago at Pittsburgh. I cannot, for the life of me, see Tom Brady losing three games in a row, especially when the Patriots beat the Jets in Week 5 by more than a touchdown. The Jets are making a comeback, but I don't expect the current kings of the AFC East to give up their power.
NEW ENGLAND

Minnesota @ Green Bay: I expect, when the NFL was creating this schedule last year, that the fine people at ESPN were expecting Minnesota to be a much stronger team than they turned out to be (which is why MIN @ GB is a Monday Night Football game). Don't expect anything out of the ordinary here, Minnesota is a mediocre team and they're visiting the best team in the NFL right now. Another blowout by halftime.
PACKERS